In contrast, for the automotive industry, the future of autonomous cars is real, urgent, and significant. For this technology, the industry's undivided attention, engineering efforts, and smart decisions are needed today, not 10 years from now.
The question splitting the automotive industry now is what level of V2X services -- including both communication between vehicles, V2V (vehicle to vehicle) services, and V2I (vehicle to infrastructure) services -- are necessary before the future of fully autonomous cars becomes reality.
In other words, as the Advanced Driver Assistance System (ADAS) used in smartcars further improves, and cellular services such as LTE proliferate, do autonomous cars even need to wait for the elusive V2X future?
Speaking of the lengthy regulatory process necessary to get the mandate done ("a minimum of eight years") and the time it takes ("15 to 20 years") to actually put a sufficient proportion of cars on the road to realize the V2X dream, Roger Lanctot, associate director of Strategy Analytics, bluntly told me, "Bottom line, this is really not going to happen."
Several forces, currently at work, might dramatically change the original V2X concept from the blueprint initially drawn up by the automotive industry and government bureaucrats years ago.
First, the biggest force sweeping the automotive industry today is the smartphone. "Back in 2007, when Japan originally mapped out the V2I plan, we've never imagined the proliferation of smartphones in this magnitude," observed a spokesman of ITS Japan in a recent interview with EE Times in Tokyo.
There's also the Google factor. Google currently runs its semi-autonomous vehicles with no V2X support. "On-board LIDAR/RADAR/ camera technology is not V2X," stressed Ian Riches, Strategy Analytics' director responsible for global automotive practice. "The vehicle is not communicating with anything, but rather directly sensing its environment independently of every other vehicle and the infrastructure."
A third factor is the cost to deploy V2X. Juniper Research's Anthony Cox, in