Sales from the service business and the spare parts trade will only increase by around 3% per year: from just under € 800 billion today to € 1.2 trillion in 2030, and the share of after-sales in total sales in the automotive industry will fall from 25% today to 19%. This is a key finding of the study "Ready for inspection - The automotive aftermarket in 2030", for which McKinsey & Company developed global scenarios for the future of after-sales business and interviewed nearly 50 industry experts.
For a long time, after-sales business was a reliable guarantee of sales and profits for manufacturers, suppliers and workshops. But it looks like these times are coming to an end. "Digitisation is opening up the traditional value chain between original parts manufacturers and suppliers, parts dealers and workshops. New e-commerce players are pushing into this market," says Bernd Heid, senior partner in McKinsey's Cologne office and co-author of the study. By 2020, up to 15% of auto parts in North America and Europe could already be sold online. 70% of the experts surveyed are certain: new digital players will secure a significant share of the industry's sales.
"Digitization increases price transparency for end customers," explains Sebastian Kempf, partner in McKinsey's Düsseldorf office and also co-author of the study. "It is also conceivable that a connected car will automatically make workshop recommendations." More than every second driver (58%) in the USA, Germany, Brazil and China would follow such a recommendation.