However, a minority of Tier 1 suppliers and automotive OEMs develop their own lidar technology. IDTechEx interviewed Tier 1 supplier Continental about progress in developing the HFL110 3D Flash LIDAR product, which builds on their expertise in advanced driver-assistance systems. Continental expects the adoption of 3D lidar in the automotive market to accelerate in the second half of the coming decade.
According to the market model developed by IDTechEx, a winning lidar technology cannot emerge within the next decade. The ideal 3D lidar technology depends on the type of vehicle, its level of autonomy, and its typical operating conditions. According to the market forecast calculated by IDTechEx, the global market for 3D lidar in level 3+ autonomous vehicles grows to $5.4 billion by 2030, and MEMS lidar emerges as the largest market segment during this time period particularly thanks to their readiness level. Nevertheless, the MEMS technology is facing challenges like the need to balance size, resonant frequency, and angle of the mirror, and automotive-grade reliability.